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Archive for September, 2019

Weekly Market Update for September 27, 2019

by JM Hanley

The Dow was down on Friday, falling 71 points to close at 26,820. For the week, the Dow was down 0.4% (SP500 -1.0%) and year-to-date is now up 15.0% (SP500 +18.2%). The yield on the 10-year Treasury (an important interest-rate indicator) fell three basis points, closing at 1.69%.  The price of crude oil fell 4% this week to $56 a barrel – up 23% YTD

As investors await the next rounds of trade negotiations, tensions seemed to be thawing this week.  China has resumed purchases of US pork and soybeans after the US agreed to postpone the tranche of tariffs scheduled for October 1st.  Meanwhile, markets were happy to see that the Chinese delegation will reportedly include a Vice Premier – a sign Beijing is serious about making a deal – though his power may have been curtailed.

The good news was disrupted today, when the Administration said it would consider limiting Americans’ ability to invest in China. The Chinese Minister subsequently responded in a hawkish speech. After a few months of escalation, trade negotiations seem to be settling into a period of equilibrium. A deal seems far off. Most important for the market will be the round of tariffs scheduled to come into effect December 15. With the tariffs implemented so far, firms have managed to find alternatives to Chinese sources to avoid raising prices. That will be more difficult for the duties scheduled to come into effect in mid-December.

Economic data this week depicted an economy in which growth has decelerated. Consumer confidence fell, worse than expected, last month. Data from the Richmond Fed showed that manufacturing orders and shipments had weakened, though employment remained robust. Second quarter GDP growth wasn’t revised – it remained at 2% – as higher estimates of government spending and exports offset lower estimates of consumer spending and business investment in capital equipment. This was unsurprising in light of weak consumer confidence.

The lone exception to weak economic trends was in the housing market, which has seen an upswing since the end of July thanks to lower interest rates. New and existing home sales rebounded more quickly than expected in August, and pending home sales also look good. Refinancing has been robust ever since the Fed cut rates. More importantly, one index showed that home price increases have slowed. Starter home prices, unaffordable to debt-burdened first-time buyers, have been an impediment to a sustained housing boom. If builders find a way to add more affordable housing supply, that trend could reverse.

Monday is the last day of the third quarter. Earnings will follow shortly thereafter. The direction of earnings and forecasts for the fourth quarter will have a big influence on the market, as will the tone of comments as the trade discussions with China approach.

*The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes to assist in explaining factors that may have had an impact in the past or may have an impact in the future on client portfolios or composites. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the firm on this date and are subject to change. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Clients or prospective clients should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All clients are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results; there is always a possibility of loss.

Weekly Market Update for September 20, 2019

by JM Hanley

The Dow was down on Friday, falling 160 points to close at 26,935. For the week, the Dow was down 0.5% (SP500 -0.7%) and year-to-date is now up 15.5% (SP500 +19.4%). The yield on the 10-year Treasury (an important interest-rate indicator) fell eighteen basis points, closing at 1.72%.

The price of crude oil rose 6% this week to $58 a barrel – up 28% YTD. Prices rose precipitously early in the week after Iranian-linked militias attacked Saudi Arabian refineries, precipitating the largest known disruption in oil production. Prices settled later on after the Saudi oil ministry said that lost production could be brought back on-line at the end of the month. Tensions between the two Middle Eastern powers remain high.

At their much-anticipated September meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected. More surprising was the final vote: five participants, two shy of a majority, voted against the cut. Excluding some volatile industries, inflation has been higher than the Fed’s target since its last meeting.  That may explain the opponents’ change of tune. Markets had previously anticipated the Fed would cut rates again in October, but now more than half say rates should be left unchanged. At least one more cut is expected between now and December, however. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized his willingness to aggressively cut rates during an economic downturn, so market reaction was sanguine.

Low rates have already provided a fillip to a previously lackluster housing market. Existing home sales rose about a percent last month; Wall Street had expected a decline. “Starts” on the construction of new homes were also better than expected. The week also brought hopeful signs in manufacturing. Industrial production rose by half a percent, with business equipment purchases particularly strong.

China’s latest trade delegation arrived in the US this week. The group mostly consists of low-level emissaries preparing the ground for more consequential officials arriving next month. Bilateral discussions seemed to largely go as expected, though the deputies returned home early. Trade uncertainty remains the market’s most significant worry.

*The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes to assist in explaining factors that may have had an impact in the past or may have an impact in the future on client portfolios or composites. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the firm on this date and are subject to change. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Clients or prospective clients should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All clients are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results; there is always a possibility of loss.

Weekly Market Update for September 13, 2019

by JM Hanley

The Dow was up on Friday, rising 37 points to close at 27,220. For the week, the Dow was up 1.6% (SP500 +1.0%) and year-to-date is now up 16.7% (SP500 +20.0%). The yield on the 10-year Treasury (an important interest-rate indicator) rose thirty-five basis points, closing at 1.90%. The price of crude oil fell 4% this week to $55 a barrel – up 21% YTD

The much-anticipated European Central Bank interest rate decision came Thursday. The reduction in interest rates, by one tenth of one percent, was less than expected. But the committee’s commentary about future interest rate cuts was more accommodative, emphasizing low inflation. Most dovish of all was the new policy for purchasing sovereign bonds (or “quantitative easing”). This policy, debuted after the financial crisis, has the effect of holding down interest rates and encouraging lending. Most QE programs specify a total amount of purchases at the outset, but Frankfurt announced this one would continue indefinitely (until inflation improves). Persistently slow growth in Europe suggests that could take a while.

Just as central bankers have come around to the view that inflation is chronically low, it is showing signs of accelerating. Consumer prices increased 2.4% last month, a recent high. Healthcare costs increased considerably, and the impact of tariffs is now being felt in prices. Used car prices and the cost of public transport also accelerated. Some common consumer areas, like car parts, furniture, and clothing, weren’t as bad. The news raises the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter point at its meeting next week. Another sign that a dramatic downturn may not be imminent is strong consumer sentiment, which has rebounded this month. With industrial production slowing worldwide, confident consumers are the most important engine of the economy.

Signs the economy may be better than feared precipitated a noticeable rotation in equity markets. Last month, nervous investors sold stocks of so-called cyclicals, whose profits are reliant on economic growth. They rotated into companies that have done well recently, or are at least perceived as stable: software companies, utilities, service firms, and the like. These names became “crowded,” or overbought, to an extent not seen in ten years. Price-to-earnings multiples rose accordingly, while cyclicals got much cheaper.  Easing trade tensions and signs the jobs market remains robust prompted investors to reassess. In the first two weeks of the month, they’ve hurried back into cyclicals. Next week may bring more news on trade talks with China. Anything positive will give stocks a boost.

*The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes to assist in explaining factors that may have had an impact in the past or may have an impact in the future on client portfolios or composites. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the firm on this date and are subject to change. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Clients or prospective clients should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All clients are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results; there is always a possibility of loss.

Weekly Market Update for September 6, 2019

by JM Hanley

The Dow was up on Friday, rising 26 points to close at 26,797. For the week, the Dow was up 1.5% (SP500 +1.8%) and year-to-date is now up 14.9% (SP500 +18.8%). The yield on the 10-year Treasury (an important interest-rate indicator) rose six basis points, closing at 1.55%. The price of crude oil rose 3% this week to $57 a barrel – up 25% YTD

After the escalation of the trade war two weeks ago, and the détente last week, investors find themselves in a familiar realm of uncertainty.  America’s and China’s lead negotiators spoke in person on Wednesday for the first time since mid-August.  Beijing’s withdrawal of the controversial Hong Kong extradition bill could also be interpreted as a peace offering. In return, they probably expect the October 1st increase in the US tariff rate will be suspended. Markets largely assume the October and December tariffs will be cancelled. For its part, the PBOC (the Chinese central bank) cut interest rates, as expected.

In the US, the health of the industrial economy and the service sector continue to diverge. The ISM’s survey of the former showed it slipped (slightly) into contraction. But the health of the latter, reflected in today’s jobs report, remains good enough to compensate. The number of new jobs, though fewer than expected, was enough to keep the unemployment rate at its current (record) low.  Hourly earnings and labor force participation also improved. Chinese data was muddled. There were some indications the industrial sector could likewise be slowing, but exports (and the service sector) remain healthy. The news was less ambiguous in Germany, where global manufacturing headwinds aren’t offset by the service sector. Most assume Europe’s largest economy is in recession.

The European slowdown has trained attention on the ECB’s meeting next Thursday. Expectations for monetary stimulus, in the form of lower rates and sovereign bond purchases, are high. But the belief that extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy is the new normal has distorted the yield curve. A corrective from Frankfurt could stabilize bond markets, which would soothe equity investors. It’s a delicate needle to thread. Finally, a decision on Brexit will now likely be delayed until mid-winter. Despite the heavy volume of headlines it inspires, the terms of the UK’s departure may have little impact on American equity markets.

*The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes to assist in explaining factors that may have had an impact in the past or may have an impact in the future on client portfolios or composites. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the firm on this date and are subject to change. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Clients or prospective clients should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All clients are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results; there is always a possibility of loss.

 

Ulland Investment Advisors

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