Weekly Update Archives
Weekly Market Update – December 6, 2013
A stronger-than-expected November jobs report catapulted the Dow to a 199-point gain Friday, pushing the index above 16,000.
Friday’s job report showed 203,000 jobs added in November, above expectations of approximately 185,000. The number of jobs created in September were revised up to 175,000 from 163,000, though down for October (to 200,000 from 204,000). The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% to 7.0% (a five-year low), an encouraging number due to the fact that the decline was the result of more people finding jobs than leaving the workforce. The data released confirms the labor market is improving, though perhaps not robustly enough to launch the Fed into tapering action later this month. With inflation remaining a non-issue, it is thought the Fed will begin scaling back its stimulus program in March of next year. The Fed is scheduled to meet December 17-18.
Interest rates rose Friday with the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising 2 bps to settle at 2.88%.
Oil rose .3% Friday on the heels of the jobs report to close at $97.70, up 5.4% for the week, its biggest weekly gain since July. Natural gas settled .2% lower to $4.12, finishing the week up 4.0%. The cold weather invading the country should help boost the price of natural gas.
Next week, economic calendar highlights include weekly jobless claims and November retail sales on Thursday and November inflation data on Friday. Expect weekly jobless claims to settle in the 320,000 range (from 298,000 this week), retail sales to show an increase from October and inflation to remain in check.
Weekly Market Update – November 27, 2013
The Dow gained 25 points Wednesday on a relatively quiet day, closing at a record high of 16,097.
A spate of positive economic data was released today, including a better-than-expected weekly jobless claims number, a healthy manufacturing report and an upwardly revised consumer sentiment reading. However, the big-ticket report comes next Friday when the November jobs report is released. The result of the report will heavily factor into the Fed’s stimulus tapering strategy.
Interest rates rose Wednesday with the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising 3 bps to settle at 2.74%.
Next week, November new home sales on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the aforementioned November jobs report on Friday highlight the week’s economic calendar. Expect November housing data to show an improvement from October, weekly jobless claims to settle in the 320,000 range (from 316,000 this week), the jobs report to show an increase in the number of jobs created from October (204,000) and the unemployment rate to remain at 7.3%.
Equity and bond markets and our office will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, November 28 for Thanksgiving. Our office will be open on Friday but equity and bond markets will close early, at noon and 1pm, respectively.
Weekly Market Update – November 22, 2013
Markets continued their upward trend Friday as the Dow gained 55 points on a relatively quiet day, ending the week up .6%. For the year the index is now up 22.6%.
Both the Dow and S&P 500 reached record highs Friday as comments from the Atlanta Fed President suggesting monetary policy will remain accommodative for many more years helped maintain the stock market’s bullish bias. Trading volume was light and is expected to be so through next week given the Thanksgiving holiday.
Interest rates fell Friday with the yield on the 10-year Treasury declining 3 bps to settle at 2.75%, up 4 bps for the week. This move helped preferred and trust preferred prices.
Oil fell .5% Friday to close at $94.83, down .4% for the week. Abundant oil inventories continue to keep oil prices lower. A possible reduction in sanctions currently levied against Iran in exchange for a more limited atomic program could result in a release of Iranian oil, further increasing supply and pressuring oil prices.
Next week, economic calendar highlights include October housing data and consumer confidence on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims and November manufacturing on Wednesday. Expect housing data to show an improvement from September, weekly jobless claims to settle in the 330,000 range (from 323,000 this week) and the manufacturing data to show a decrease in activity from October.
Equity markets and our offices will be closed next Thursday, November 28 for Thanksgiving but will be open on Friday.
Weekly Market Update – November 8, 2013
An encouraging jobs report helped the Dow soar 168 points Friday, ending the week up .9%. For the year the index is now up 20.3%.
The October jobs report was better-than-expected with non-farm payrolls showing 204,000 jobs created in October, above the 125,000 estimate. The low estimate reflected the view that the partial government shutdown in October would hurt job growth. This turned out not to be the case. The unemployment rate increased to 7.3% from 7.2%. Consumer spending rose .2% in October, in line with expectations.
This data combined with Thursday’s better-than-expected Q3 GDP reading of 2.8% (forecast was 2.0 – 2.5%) has heightened expectations that the Fed will begin tapering its stimulus program earlier than expected, albeit still not until the first quarter of 2014. Interest rates rose Friday in response to the jobs report with the yield on the 10-year Treasury gaining 14 bps to settle at 2.75%, up 13 bps for the week. This move depressed preferred and trust preferred prices.
Oil rose $.40 Friday on the heels of the jobs report to close at $94.60, down one cent for the week. High oil inventories coupled with a relatively calm hurricane season has kept oil prices lower in recent weeks; as a result, the average price of gas has dropped to its lowest level in almost two years. Low gas prices should help consumer spending. Natural gas gained 1.1% to $3.56, up 1.4% for the week.
Next week’s economic calendar is fairly quiet, with weekly jobless claims on Thursday and October manufacturing data on Friday highlighting the economic reporting. Expect jobless claims to again settle in the 330,000 range (from 336,000 this week) and for the manufacturing data to show an increase in activity from September.
Equity markets and our offices will be open next Monday, November 11 (Veterans Day).