by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

After notching fresh all-time highs on Wednesday and Thursday, major indices fell on Friday, amounting to little change for the week. The S&P 500 finished the week up +0.13%, while the Nasdaq fell -0.08%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.60%, up +24 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, rose +3 bps to 3.73%.

President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, marking the first presidential visit to China since 2017. The US-China summit—which had been scheduled for March but was delayed due to the Iran conflict—was the first of two meetings between the two superpowers, as President Xi was invited to visit the US in September of this year. The summit ended without substantial breakthroughs or announcements, but kicked off discussions on global trade, AI safety, defense of Taiwan, and opening the Strait of Hormuz.

At long last, Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors following a majority vote in the Senate on Wednesday, and the expiration of Jerome Powell’s tenure on Friday. Warsh inherits a strained operating environment, as the labor market remains tenuously stable, war-driven fuel constraints are reaccelerating inflation, and the Fed Board appears divided on the direction of monetary policy.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation ticked up yet again, reaching 3.8% in April, up from 3.3% last month. Core CPI similarly tracked upward, but to a lesser extent, reaching 2.8% or an increase of 20 bps from March. The core and headline CPI increases were in line with Wall Street expectations. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation was a larger surprise for Street analysts; headline PPI jumped 170 bps from March to 6.0%, while core PPI jumped 120 bps to 5.2%. Wall Street had expected April’s headline and core PPI to be 5.0% and 4.3%, respectively. The worse-than-expected report almost certainly contributed to the uptick in the 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries, pushing their respective rates above 4.5% and 5%.

Q1 earnings season has slowed down significantly, as 91% of S&P 500 companies have reported their results. The quarter was a strong one, with a blended earnings growth rate of 27.7%, well outstripping the 13.0% growth estimate heading into the quarter; assuming this growth rate holds, it would be the quickest clip for the index since Q4 of 2021.

With earnings season near its end, brokerage conferences are beginning to pick up. Next week sees several such events, including the JP Morgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, and the Goldman Sachs Utilities and Clean Energy Conference. The beginning of summer also brings summer software and developer conferences, hosted by major tech companies. Google kicks things off with its I/O event next week, followed by Apple’s WWDC26 in early June. A sparse set of economic data rounds out the week, with the FOMC minutes from the most recent meeting and the University of Michigan’s final reading of consumer sentiment for May.

Fixed Income Outlook: A Steady Hand Amid Volatile Markets
Quarterly Market Update from Nat Beebe, President & CEO – April 2026

In our Q1 letter we wrote that we were “actively positioning our clients for change at the Fed.” One quarter later, change has come, just not in the form most expected. The outbreak of the Iran conflict on March 1^st, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude oil from approximately $72 a barrel in late February to a peak near $120 in mid-March, a surge of more than 55%. With energy feeding directly into headline inflation, the Federal Reserve has signaled a more cautious posture, and the market is now pricing in a roughly six-month delay in the rate cut path we anticipated coming into the year.

In moments like this, our advice now is the same that we have given for years: stay disciplined, stay invested, and let the strategy do its work.

A delay is not a reversal. We continue to believe rates will trend lower over the next 24 months. A weakening labor market, easing wage pressure, and decelerating core inflation all point in the same direction. An oil-driven spike in headline CPI changes the timing, not the trajectory. We are slightly adjusting our year-end target on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury to 4.00% to incorporate this delay.

A steady hand finds opportunity in dislocation. Volatility has done what volatility usually does: creates opportunities. We continue to see compelling value in fixed-rate $25 par preferreds trading at deep discounts, and the Q2 selloff has only widened the opportunity.

This quarter we highlight an opportunity outside our typical mega-cap bank universe. Public Storage, the largest self-storage REIT in the U.S. and an investment-grade issuer (A3 / BBB+), has its Series R 4.00% fixed-rate coupon preferred trading at roughly 63% of par (Figure 1). With a current yield of 6.34%, we view it as a high-quality complement to our core bank preferred positions. The widening spread between PSA-R and the 10-Year over the past five months (Figure 2) is exactly the kind of dislocation we look to capture.

Figure 2: PSA-R yield vs. 10-Year Treasury — spread widened ~66 bps from Oct 2025 to Feb 2026. Source: Bloomberg.

Locking in income while we wait. With a current yield of approximately 6.50% on our Intelligent Fixed Income (IFI) strategy, clients are well compensated to remain patient. We continue to view this as an income “plus” strategy; the income is the yield we lock in today; the plus is the price appreciation we expect as rates move lower.

For clients with idle cash, our Intelligent Fixed Income Gov strategy invests in short-term U.S. Treasuries (no state income tax) at a current yield of approximately 3.60%. With many banks having reduced savings rates well below that level, this remains an attractive option for both individuals and corporations carrying idle cash. There is no minimum account size for current clients.

If you have a friend or family member who would benefit from our advice, please keep us in mind. Our growth comes from referrals, and we value each introduction.

The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.

Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.

This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.