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Weekly Market Update for December 27, 2019

by Jared Plotz

This week’s update includes intra-day index levels, as I will be heading out at noon here.  The Dow is up 58 points today, rising to a fresh, all-time high of 28,679. For the week, the Dow has risen 0.8% (S&P 500 +0.7%) and year-to-date is now up 22.9% (S&P 500 +29.3%). The yield on the 10-year Treasury (an important interest-rate indicator) stands at 1.87%, down 4 points from last week. As regular readers of our weekly know, US Treasuries have been quite volatile this year, with the 10-year rising to a high of 2.78% in January and a low of 1.46% in early September.

This December feels starkly different than the prior, when markets were on their backs following a Federal Reserve interest rate hike along with a yield curve inversion, the start of a government shutdown, and declining consumer confidence. Instead, we will likely close out this year near all-time index highs, with strong consumer confidence and employment, a recently agreed trade deal with China (“phase one”), and a Federal Reserve that is determined to hold interest rates low until sustained inflation presents itself. The holidays seem a bit more cheerful, at least as investment portfolios are concerned.

The holiday week was quiet, without much major news. November orders for manufactured goods were soft, as were new home sales; but unemployment claims were in check, and consumer comfort levels favorable. Next week should be quiet as well before December employment numbers are released on January 10th.

Our office will return to more normal staffing next week; however, we will be closed Wednesday for New Year’s. We are looking forward to seeing the final performance numbers for our fixed income strategy, which has had a very strong year, likely its best.

We wish everyone a Happy New Year and prosperous 2020!

*The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes to assist in explaining factors that may have had an impact in the past or may have an impact in the future on client portfolios or composites. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the firm on this date and are subject to change. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Clients or prospective clients should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All clients are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results; there is always a possibility of loss.