Weekly Market Update for April 2, 2026

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Indices continued to oscillate following updates on the Iran conflict, though investors seem to be growing cautiously optimistic about a near term resolution. The S&P 500 finished the week up +3.36%, while the Nasdaq grew +4.44%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.30%, down -13 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, fell -1 bp to 3.70%.

Market sentiment improved steadily throughout the week as media reports hinted at positive developments toward a ceasefire. Reportedly, President Trump is open to ending the war without the Strait of Hormuz being opened, whilst Iranian President Pezeshkian said his nation is ready to end the war, albeit with certain security guarantees, and the two sides are said to be in ongoing negotiations. This is certainly a positive development compared to last week’s resounding rejection of peace negotiations.

Market momentum stalled out following a prime-time presidential address on Wednesday night, the first since the war began. President Trump did not mince words in keeping to the war path, stating “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” and that “We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.” Whether this is bravado intended to improve the US bargaining position, or a reflection of changing attitudes among the Administration is unclear. Markets traded sideways on Thursday following the comments and renewed commitment to the conflict.

Though indices are following sentiments around Iran, some equities are bucking the trend with positive business developments. Marvell Technologies (MRVL), a semiconductor manufacturer, saw its stock pop +13% on the day as chip designer and world’s largest company Nvidia (NVDA) announced a $2 billion stake in the company. This investment is one of a string from Nvidia in recent months as the tech giant builds exposure to and deepens integration with companies across the AI datacenter buildout.

Private space exploration company and owner of Starlink satellite internet SpaceX filed plans this week for an initial public offering (IPO) later this year. The company expects a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, which would be the largest IPO of all time and put the firm solidly in the top 10 most valuable companies by market capitalization. Media reports suggest SpaceX is targeting a June 2026 IPO, though dates have yet to be announced. SpaceX is expected to be the first of a series of blockbuster IPOs in 2026, with AI firms Anthropic and OpenAI—the makers of Claude and ChatGPT, respectively—believed to be sizing up public offerings for later in the year.

Wednesday’s SpaceX IPO filing was coincidentally on the same day as the launch of NASA’s Artemis II, the first crewed mission in the Artemis project. The rocket is part of the broader Artemis program, which hopes to build infrastructure on the moon to support planetary research and to serve as a base for a mission to Mars at some point in the future. SpaceX is expected to be heavily involved in the design and manufacture of technologies used in the Artemis project, as the company already serves as a primary transporter for astronauts and cargo to the International Space Station.

Data is back on the menu in the upcoming week, with a busy slate of releases. The three-day holiday weekend begins with tomorrow morning’s release of the March Employment report. Next Thursday brings the final GDP reading for Q4 of 2025, and PCE inflation for February, while Friday brings CPI inflation for March. As a reminder, our office will be closed on April 3^rd, reflecting the US market holiday for Good Friday.