Weekly Market Update for January 30, 2026

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Markets had little reaction to what was an eventful week for corporate earnings and the Fed. The S&P 500 finished the week up +0.34%, while the Nasdaq fell -0.17%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.25%, up +2 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, remained unchanged at 3.63%.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.50% – 3.75%, as was widely expected. The Committee’s statement, which articulates its view of the US economy, was more hawkish than at the previous meeting. Chair Powell described the economy as being on “firm footing” as economic activity expanded, the unemployment rate stabilized, and inflation remained at an elevated-but-stable level. It’s expected that the economic picture will remain largely the same through the next FOMC meeting on March 17^th – 18^th. According to CME FedWatch, analysts estimate an 87% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

In other Fed news, President Trump announced former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve Board Chair. The long-awaited announcement comes four months before current chair Jerome Powell’s term expires. Warsh served at the Fed from 2006 to 2011, during the heart of the Great Financial Crisis. In that time, he was considered a hawk, pushing for higher interest rates even as the country struggled with the Great Recession. Since leaving the Fed, and especially in the months leading up to this announcement, he has appeared notably more dovish, arguing in favor of lower interest rates.

Congress may prove an obstacle to Warsh’s appointment as instating a new member to the Fed Board of Governors requires approval by the Senate. Senator Thom Tillis has stated that he will oppose Warsh’s nomination until the Department of Justice investigation into Chair Jerome Powell is resolved. As a member of the Senate Banking Committee, Tillis has the leeway to halt the Senate confirmation process, putting the appointment of Warsh at his mercy. Once the congressional logjam is resolved, Warsh is expected to fill the seat of Governor Stephen Miran—whose term expires at the end of January—before being promoted to Chair at the conclusion of Chair Powell’s term.

Speaking of congressional logjams, the legislative branch is quickly barreling toward another government shutdown. The Senate was slated to pass six appropriations bills this week that would fund around 75% of the government. The funding bills had been crafted in a bipartisan negotiation process over the past several months but were quickly halted in the aftermath of an ICE-involved shooting in Minneapolis. Lawmakers have seemingly cut a deal that will pass five of the six bills and implement a two-week stopgap measure for the remaining appropriations package to be renegotiated. This deal won’t be voted on until February 1^st at the earliest, after government funding has lapsed, though congressional leaders are hopeful that this shutdown will not last very long.

AI continues to drive earnings growth for hyperscalers. Meta and Microsoft both touted earnings per share for Q4 that exceeded Wall Street expectations. Both firms continue to invest in compute capacity by expanding their data center footprints. Additional compute allowed Meta to improve AI-augmented advertisement recommendation systems, which increased advertising performance in the quarter. Microsoft invested its compute in Copilot, its AI assistant, as well as increasing the capacity of its cloud computing service, Azure. Though both stocks saw strong top-line performance, the market responded differently to their earnings reports, with Meta gaining +10% and Microsoft falling -12%, demonstrating the volatility of investor sentiment.

Market sentiment toward AI and hyperscale spending will remain top of mind next week as Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and Amazon are set to report on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. In addition, a fresh set of labor market data will be released, with JOLTS on Tuesday and both nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate on Friday.