Weekly Market Update for November 21, 2025

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Markets saw a small pullback this week as skepticism surrounding AI investment began to mount. The S&P 500 finished the week down -1.95%, while the technology heavy Nasdaq fell -2.74%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.06%, down -9 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, fell -6 bps to 3.77%.

Nvidia delivered another superb quarter, with revenue soaring 62% y/y (22% q/q), powered by insatiable demand for the new Blackwell chips and continued dominance in the data center. Adjusted EPS jumped 60% y/y, beating expectations as the company successfully navigates a complex supply chain ramp. Management guided next-quarter revenue significantly ahead of analysts’ forecast—driven by the acceleration of Blackwell Ultra shipments. Momentum remains exceptional: order pipelines imply robust demand through 2026, gross margins are projected to hold around current levels despite rising input costs, and management reiterated that the shift to accelerated computing is just beginning. This all reinforces Nvidia’s position as the foundational player in the AI infrastructure buildout. The stock popped 5% initially before pulling back with the broader market.

Market pullback this week echoed growing concern about the possible formation of an AI “bubble.” It’s hard to tell if this is the case, as the small pullback could reflect expectations of a bubble, or it could represent investors harvesting their AI “winners” before the end of the tax year. In either case, positive earnings reports from the likes of Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon, Microsoft, and now Nvidia, show robust appetite for AI investment and compute capacity.

Though all eyes were on Nvidia and the tech sector this week, some changes were made on the trade front. Two executive orders signed in the last week lifted tariffs, which ranged from 10% to 40% on over 200 products. Many of the items that are no longer tariffed are foods that don’t grow well in the US such as bananas and coffee. The US and Switzerland reached a trade deal this week as well, lowering tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%. In return, Swiss companies have pledged to invest $200 billion in the US.

The nonfarm payrolls and household employment survey for September were released this week, over a month and a half late. These employment reports expounded on the theme of labor market deterioration, as the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1% to 4.4% while the economy added a below average 119k jobs during September. Additionally, the July and August jobs reports were revised down from 79k to 72k, and from 22k to -4k, respectively. A stagnant labor market increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at their next meeting, and markets are now pricing in a 75% chance of a cut in December, as opposed to the 39% projection prior to the labor market data. Cuts to the central policy rate often correlate with higher prices for fixed-income assets, including preferreds.

A deluge of delayed data begins next Tuesday, with Septembers PPI inflation report releasing. Wednesday follows with October PCE inflation and third quarter GDP, adding the inflation piece to the overall macroeconomic puzzle. The stock market, as well as our office, will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, followed by a shortened half-day of trading on Friday.

From the team here at Ulland, we wish you a safe, happy, and thankful Thanksgiving holiday!