by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

The shortened week had its fair share of data, policy and product announcements. The S&P 500 finished the week down -0.80%, while the Nasdaq fell -0.66%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.97%, up +19 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 4.15%, up +14 bps from last week.

This Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading for August has tipped the scales toward a rate hike at the Fed, rather than a hold. Topline CPI increased 3.4% year-over-year, 0.1% higher than Wall Street consensus, while core CPI was in line with consensus estimates and -0.1% slower than July. At face value, the inflation numbers don’t seem to imply a need for a rate increase, with core declining and topline stable in year-over-year terms, however, recent Fed policymaker commentary makes a case for a hike more apparent. Christopher Waller, generally regarded as a data-dependent, middle-of-the-road Fed Governor, said last week “If there is continued progress toward our 2 percent goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level. But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.” Whether inflation remaining unchanged from July to August represents progress toward the 2% goal will be a major topic of debate at next week’s Fed meeting, but the market sees a rate hike as likely; according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-bps hike sits at 87%, up from 60% last week.

The 10-year Treasury yield has trended to a three-year high—reaching 4.97% this week—as escalation in Iran, oil prices topping $100 a barrel, and the federal government debt reaching an eye-watering $40 trillion have troubled investors. The Treasury Department has sought to keep bond markets liquid and lower yields by increasing buybacks of long-dated 10- and 20-year bonds. The initial intervention, announced in mid-August, doubled the typical quarterly buybacks to $4 billion. This past Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised buybacks again to a total of $6 billion. Bond yields increased 17 basis points through the end of the week, indicating that investors see the additional buybacks as too little to make a major impact.

It was a surprisingly busy week for new technology announcements, with major AI model releases and a new iPhone announcement. Meta continued its mission to join the AI frontier with the release of Muse, a personal AI agent that can shop, send emails or access other apps for users. Frontier modelmaker OpenAI publicly released GPT-6 Astra, which slots in as the second most intelligent AI model available according to Artificial Analysis. Apple announced the latest generations of the iPhone Pro and Pro Max, Apple Watch, and AirPods, with functional software changes and hardware upgrades across the lineup. John Ternus, the new CEO of Apple, also announced a brand-new product, the iPhone Duo. Apple’s first entrant into the foldable phone market, the iPhone Duo will give users the portability of a pocket-sized device and the screen size and functionality of a tablet.

Economic data and the corporate calendar are relatively quiet for the next week, with a few healthcare-focused brokerage conferences and sector-specific datapoints like housing starts, retail sales, and industrial production. The event of the week is Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which includes a new set of economic projections. Markets are leaning towards a 25-bps rate increase, but reasonable arguments can be made for both a hold and a hike. Policymakers will certainly be having the “good family fight” Chairman Warsh has been hoping for.

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

A relatively uneventful week saw little movement in the major indices. The S&P 500 finished the week up +0.09%, while the Nasdaq rose +0.40%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.78%, up +5 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 4.01%, up +3 bps from last week.

Friday’s employment report was anticipated all week, with analysts and commentators speculating how the new labor statistics would factor into the Fed’s next interest rate policy meeting. Nonfarm payrolls for August came in much stronger than expected at +162k, beating Wall Street’s +65k estimate. Trends are generally more useful for policymakers than a singular month’s numbers as they give a better idea of the direction the economy is headed. In the past three months, nonfarm payrolls have averaged +71k new jobs, implying some measure of stability.

Relative stability within the labor market magnifies focus on inflation, especially as it has been above the 2% target for over five years now. Among Fed policymakers, perspectives seem divergent, setting the stage for a contested debate in the Fed’s September meeting. Fed Governor Barr said on Tuesday that the Fed should be prepared to hike policy rates unless upcoming data shows progress toward the inflation target whilst Fed Governor Waller, who spoke Thursday, seemed inclined to hold interest rates at the upcoming September meeting, so long as current disinflationary trends hold. The pressure is on, with next week’s CPI inflation reading seen as the catalyst in the hike-or-hold debate at the Fed.

Tensions continue to rise with Iran, as military strikes resumed this week. The US military has been working double duty, escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz while striking nearly 60 Iranian military targets like air defenses, radar systems, and mine-laying equipment. The two-pronged military and economic fight is putting major pressure on Iran: the Iranian rial’s exchange rate has collapsed, inflation sits at nearly 70% year over year, the country has only a two-month supply of gasoline remaining, and outbound crude oil shipments have dropped to 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 1.7 million bpd a year ago. The conflict may drag on for some time yet, but Iran is certainly feeling the pressure.

Pressure on the Fed intensified this week, as President Trump renewed his call for lower interest rates. As the President routinely highlights, higher interest rates make it more expensive for the US government to service its debt, increasing the budget deficit and weighing on economic growth. However, higher interest rates are the Fed’s best weapon against inflation, which has been persistent throughout 2026. The ongoing public discourse surrounding the Fed exemplifies the difficult mission of Fed policymakers, who sometimes have to make decisions that are unpopular with the politicians and the public. Chairman Warsh, still nascent in his tenure, will have many tough decisions to make, and it remains to be seen if he’ll emulate the independence of Chairman Paul Volcker, or cave to external pressure like Chairman Arthur Burns.

The shortened Labor Day week has little in the way of earnings reports. Instead, the corporate calendar resumes with a slate of brokerage conferences, including Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference. Economic data will be focused almost exclusively on Friday’s core and headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings for August, though the August Producer Price Index (PPI) and September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index are also on the docket.

In addition, financial markets, and our office, will be closed in observance of Labor Day on Monday, September 7. From all of us here at Ulland, we wish you a happy, safe, and hopefully not too humid holiday weekend!

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Market indices inched ahead as AI-related companies continued to report strong earnings. The S&P 500 finished the week up +0.49%, while the Nasdaq rose +0.85%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.73%, unchanged from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 3.98%, up +6 basis points (bps) from last week.

The AI growth cycle was top of mind this week with chip manufacturing titan Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday. The world’s largest company continues to post exceptional earnings per share growth, which topped 110% year-over-year. Total revenues for the quarter reached $96 billion, while operating profits were nearly $64 billion, easily topping Wall Street expectations. The stock rose around 8% following the blowout results. AI beneficiaries CrowdStrike and Salesforce also posted strong Q2 results, with both management teams raising earnings, revenue, and profit expectations for the next fiscal year. Their stock prices moved north of 20% the day after reporting earnings.

With so much focus on AI’s role in the economy, it was only natural for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to talk about the rapid deployment of this new technology at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Chairman Warsh sees AI as “a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy.” The continued development of the technology is rapid, and the Chairman acknowledged the uncertainties surrounding the return-on-investment timeline for hyperscalers and other AI-enabling firms. The Chairman could be described as an AI optimist, with a strong belief that AI will lead to a sustained rise in productivity growth across the US economy, much like the advent of the personal computer in the late 1900s.

Outside of AI, Warsh reiterated his commitment to paring down Federal Reserve communications, aiming for “a quieter Fed” that allows market forces to react to data rather than policymakers. “Transparency in communications about future policy decisions is not a virtue unto itself,” said Warsh. In the view of the Chair, too much transparency can tie the Fed’s hands and limit the options at policymakers’ disposal. Finding the proper balance of communications will be a hallmark of Warsh’s tenure as Chairman, with the elimination of his pet peeve, “forward guidance,” as the first step in that process.

Geopolitics and trade have been tumultuous forces operating in the US economic backdrop. Negotiations with Iran continue to be hot and cold. With talks between Iran and the US breaking down yet again over the past few weeks, the Trump Administration announced a sweeping set of economic sanctions, or what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called “economic D-Day.” The sanction package targets over 60 Iran-linked entities in a variety of sectors, the most important of which being nuclear, military technology and oil. In addition, the Trump Administration has been putting threatening economic pressure on buyers of Iranian goods in a further attempt to disrupt the Iranian economy. China, which buys 90% of Iran’s oil exports, has pushed back on these economic threats. Chinese President Xi Jinping is slated to visit President Trump in Washington, DC on September 24, where Iran will almost certainly be a topic of conversation.

For corporate earnings, chips and computers are the story of next week, with Broadcom (AVGO) and Dell Technologies (DELL) as the major highlights. The month’s turnover from August to September brings new labor market readings, including the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, and the August employment report—which includes the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and the labor force participation rate—on Friday.

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

It was a bumpy week for the market as rising bond yields and an unexpected intervention by the US Treasury Department amped up uncertainty. The S&P 500 finished the week down -1.43%, while the Nasdaq fell -2.05%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.74%, +5 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 3.92%, up +1 bp from last week.

The 30-year US Treasury yield has been creeping upward in recent weeks, reaching 5.33% on Tuesday, a high not seen since prior to the Great Financial Crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday that the Department of the Treasury will be doubling buybacks of long-term Treasury bonds in an effort to lower long-term bond yields. Bessent said in a CNBC interview Thursday that “we believe the yields don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals.” The announcement was unusual in its timing, as the Treasury typically adjusts bond buybacks and issuance at the Quarterly Refunding announcement, the most recent of which was on August 5^th.

An unforeseen intervention such as this could challenge the credibility of the Treasury and have second-order implications for the Fed. The move to buy back additional long-term bonds will be paid for with increased Treasury bill issuance—ranging from 4-week to 1-year maturities—potentially pushing up short-term borrowing rates. Increased buybacks could also make the Fed’s job of controlling inflation more difficult; the Treasury intervention is intended to bring down long-term yields and boost the economy through increased borrowing. The Fed, on the other hand, fights inflation by increasing interest rates, thereby increasing long-term yields and slowing borrowing. The two institutions could be at odds with each other if the Fed votes to raise rates next month.

Facebook and Instagram owner Meta was in court this week in a landmark social media case. California, Colorado, Kentucky, and New Jersey represent 25 other states in prosecuting Meta over “certain addictive design features” on its platforms, harvesting data of users under age 13 without consent, and misleading the public about platform safety. The case is often likened to the Big Tobacco lawsuits of the 1990s and could have similarly radical consequences for the social media landscape. The jury trial will take place over the coming months, with a lengthy appeal process likely to follow regardless of which side prevails.

Inflation data is on the menu for next week with the release of July’s topline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The corporate earnings calendar has a few interesting names, including tax and business software provider Intuit (INTU) and cybersecurity software provider CrowdStrike (CRWD), but most of the week’s attention is focused on chip giant Nvidia (NVDA), which reports Wednesday.