Weekly Update Archives
Weekly Market Update for July 11, 2025
Momentum in the AI space has returned in force. After announcing plans for a new AI chip for the Chinese market this week, Nvidia’s stock valuation surpassed $4 trillion, the first company to ever do so. On the whole, market indices moved little this week. Investors have largely been shrugging off tariffs, anticipating further deals to be reached after the July 9th deadline was extended, yet again, to August 1st. The president contends this is the last extension. The S&P 500 finished the week down -0.3%, while the Nasdaq fell -0.1%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.42%, rising +8 bps from last week.
After extending the reciprocal tariff deadline, the administration sent letters to a number of trading partners with its most recent demands, while signaling that more deal announcements are in the works. Among recent tariffs proposed is a 50% tariff on copper imports and a 50% tariff on Brazil goods. On the domestic front, weekly unemployment claims came in below expectations and we’ve seen some loosening in the housing market, as MBA mortgage purchase applications jumped to a two-year high.
Amazon’s Prime Days this week drew in billions of dollars in sales each day, with other major retailers trying to piggyback on the event. Costco held Member Savings Days, while Walmart also offered dueling discounts. OpenAI said they are close to releasing an AI-powered web browser that could challenge Google’s dominance of search. This has been in the works for months, and has been an overhang for Alphabet’s (aka Google’s) stock this year.
Next week, big banks will kick off the Q2 earnings reporting season on Tuesday, with JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all slated to report. We believe bank outlooks will be positive as interest rates stabilize, macro-outlooks become less murky, loan growth accelerates, and capital markets remain strong. Key economic data points next week include CPI inflation on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and then on Friday some housing metrics come and U of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment. Throw in at least a handful of Federal Reserve members hosting speaking events and it should be a busy week.
We are happy to announce our new hire, Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, has started this week. He takes the spot of Vini d’Avila, who left at the end of April with plans to move to Germany. Gavyn hails from North Branch, MN (along the route from the Twin Cities to Duluth), and is a recent Carleton graduate who majored in Economics. Gavyn is not one to sit still; he not only interned at Franklin Templeton last summer, on their global macro team, but he also spent time his senior year collaborating on a research paper with a history professor, in addition to completing his senior thesis. Additionally, Gavyn studied abroad on the Cambridge economics program, was the lead student-advisor in Carleton’s career center, and played competitive ultimate frisbee. We are very happy to welcome Gavyn and believe he will be a strong addition to the UIA team!
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
Posted in Weekly Market Update for July 3, 2025
The major indices are back to all-time highs, surpassing their prior mid-February peaks. It was difficult to see such a possibility just a few months ago. The rebound has been swift and vast from the early-April lows, as tariffs have been toned down and as Congress has gained traction on their big fiscal bill. The S&P 500 finished the week +1.7%, the month of June +5.0%, and the second quarter (Q2) +10.6%. The Nasdaq finished the week +1.6%, June +6.6%, and Q2 +17.7%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.34%, up +3 bps from last week, but down -20 bps from the start of the year.
The government’s large reconciliation bill passed the Senate on Tuesday and looks poised to pass the House later today. The bill is packed with changes to both tax revenues (partly via extension of 2017 TCJA cuts) and government spending. Net-net, it keeps fiscal deficits in place as well as adding to the national debt. The impact on GDP growth and inflation will continue to be debated amongst investors.
On the trade front, progress was made towards deals with a number of countries, including Canada, the EU region, Vietnam, and China. Next week the pause on many reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9th, but the administration has suggested there may be a willingness to extend with those countries in which deal progress is being made. On the economic front, most manufacturing readings this week were in-line to a touch below expectations. May job openings (JOLTS) were a little better, rising to 7.77 million. Then on Thursday the June employment report was more robust than forecast. The economy added 147,000 jobs, particularly within education and health services as well as in state and local government.
Markets, and our offices, will be closed this afternoon and tomorrow in observance of the Independence Day holiday. Next week should be rather quiet. The NFIB Small Business Index will be released Tuesday and Delta Airlines will report their Q2 results on Thursday. Earnings season won’t ramp up materially, though, until the big banks start reporting the following week.
We wish you a safe & enjoyable July 4th weekend!
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
Weekly Market Update for June 27, 2025
The market shrugged off geopolitical tensions and marched higher on both the equity and fixed income front. The S&P 500 finished the week at a fresh record close, +3.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite was up +4% for the week.
On the fixed income side, the 10-Year Treasury continues to move lower, ending the week at 4.28%, down nearly 10 bps. As we close in on our 10-year U.S. Treasury yield target of 4.25% (mentioned in both our Q1 and Q2 Quarterly Letter), we continue to find attractive valuations in the $25 par preferred market. Our focus remains on deeply discounted securities, trading 70 to 80 cents on the dollar, and yielding north of 6% current yield. We expect a strong rebound in Q3/Q4 as investors aim to lock in higher yields while the Fed looks to cut rates.
Despite tension in the Middle East, oil closed with prices near $65 per barrel, falling from the high of over $75 on Monday. We feel that oil pricing below $70 will help to keep inflation in check.
Speaking of which, the inflation readings that released during the week were tame. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.10% in May alongside the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which also rose 0.10% that same month. The market remains cautious, waiting to see how the tariffs may impact inflation in the coming months.
On the firm front, we saw many of you this weekend for Jim’s service. It was wonderful to see so many of you, and we thank you for the continued support for the firm and for the Ulland Family. It was a beautiful celebration for a remarkable man.
Jared Plotz, our Director of Research and the head of our Equity Strategy, headed to New York this week to meet with J.P. Morgan and discuss the ETFs we have been using (also mentioned in our Q2 Quarterly Letter). Below is a picture of Jared and Hamilton Reiner of JP Morgan. Hamilton manages nearly $100 billion for J.P. Morgan, and we’re thrilled Jared could spend some time with him!
The market will be open for a half day on Thursday July 3rd and closed Friday July 4th. Our office will reflect this schedule as well.
Summer is here, get outside and enjoy it!
Pictured: Jared Plotz (left), Director of Research and Equity Portfolio Manager at UIA, and Hamilton Reiner (right), Portfolio Manager and head of U.S. Equity Derivatives at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
A Tribute to Jim Ulland
From the UIA Team
Following a Thanksgiving week filled with family time for many, it is with heavy hearts that we share the sad news of our founder Jim Ulland’s passing. We would first and foremost like to send our thoughts and prayers to the Ulland family, including his wife Kris, and his children Olivia (Farris Hussain) Argañaraz and Matias (Hayley Jones) Argañaraz. Thank you for sharing your amazing husband and father all these years. We are eternally grateful and blessed to have had Jim in our lives. As we mourn Jim, we wanted to use our medium this week as a tribute to him.
Born in Duluth, Jim received degrees from Carleton College and the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Finance before starting an extensive political, educational, and business career – oh, and don’t forget Christmas tree farmer.
By the time Jim founded Ulland Investment Advisors (UIA) in 1997, he had already served as Minority Leader of the Minnesota Senate, a college professor, a senior leader at large banks and investment firms, and as Minnesota’s Commissioner of Commerce. Elected to the State House at the ripe age of 27, everyone knew Jim was destined for big things right out of the gate. His gift of finding common ground and instantly connecting with individuals extended into the investment world. Simply put, people have always been drawn to Jim Ulland.
Jim loved to invest in companies exhibiting strong growth, especially at reasonable prices. He sought those with innovative technologies, disrupting legacy industries. His most recent favorite, Nvidia – which he routinely mentioned in this newsletter – is a perfect example of Jim’s ability to catch a trend early and ride the winner. Jim’s investment style not only proved fruitful for clients over many a bull market, but his resolve and calm served as a sea anchor in the winds, holding strong in the bear market storms. Jim was always steady at the helm, no surprise given his Coast Guard service, which he often enjoyed sharing over a Minneapolis Club lunch (don’t forget the side of Durkee’s mustard and just a splash of coffee). Internally, he always led with a calm and steady hand. Control what you can control, and focus on the longer term. Jim always had an optimistic view on the market and life, and an ability to transfer that to clients as well.
Ulland hits stride with money-management venture 30 Nov 1999, Tue Star Tribune (Minneapolis, Minnesota) Newspapers.com
Jim was passionate about Carleton College and his impact on generations of Carls is clear. Jim was always quick to mention that he was the hockey goalie at Carleton. During Jim’s freshman year, he was introduced to the team as a member of the world-famous Duluth East Greyhounds. What the team failed to know was that Jim was the team manager. No problem, Jim would rise up and lead the Knights in net. The pinnacle of his college hockey career was when the team defeated Wisconsin. As later recalled in a note by Captain Fred Bagley, the Knights were led by the “heroic” Jim Ulland in net, saving 40 shots on goal.
Jim’s love for Carleton led to a steady stream of interns to the firm, of whom all cut their teeth under his wing. In fact, all partners in the firm were at one time interns at UIA. From Wall Street to the NBA hardcourt, Jim has left his mark.
While there are too many investment lessons learned from Jim over the decades to mention, we will stand fast to the knowledge we have acquired under his tutelage. As we carry the UIA torch that Jim lit many years ago, we hope to embody his collaborative spirit, his passion for work, and his close connection to clients, as well as to forever remember the impact he had on the community. Clients can be reassured they remain in very good hands with the UIA team, but regrettably we will all miss the dashing smile of Jim Ulland.
Please forward this email to others who knew Jim, particularly those touched by the full life he lived. A celebration of life will be held in June, details of which we will share as we get closer. Jim’s obituary can be viewed here.
Jim always enjoyed watching the peregrine falcons from his desk at the IDS Center. We know that his spirit will be soaring high above us all as we remember the impact he made.
Thank you, Jim!
Ulland Investment Advisors Team
Nat Beebe, President (18 years at UIA)
James Skjong, Dir. of Trading, Compliance & Operations (20 years at UIA)
Jared Plotz, Dir. of Research, Portfolio Manager (8 years at UIA)
Vini Crusius d’ Avila, Research Associate (3 years at UIA)
Sarah Stokes, Client Service Associate (3 years at UIA)
