by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Equities continued their rebound this week as the S&P and Nasdaq finished at fresh all-time highs. The S&P 500 finished the week up +4.54%, while the Nasdaq grew +6.84%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.25%, down -7 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, fell -4 bps to 3.67%.

The first weekend of Iran war truce talks—a 21-hour marathon of negotiations—ended without an agreement. The lack of a treaty or truce does not signal a lack of progress, as discussions between the two sides helped to outline sticking points in the negotiations: the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s enriched uranium, and Iran’s funding of proxy groups (e.g., Hezbollah and Hamas) in the region. In response to the weekend’s inconclusive peace talks, President Trump announced Tuesday a blockade on Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran has been blocking some shipments through the critical strait, they’ve been allowing vessels to sail through if they are aligned with the regime or its allies. The US blockade had turned 13 Iranian ships around as of Thursday, with many more remaining in port.

While fighting between the US and Iran has been on hold since last week, Israel and Lebanon continued to engage one another. The two sides met in Washington, DC this week, which culminated in a 10-day ceasefire, announced on Thursday. The agreement is odd in that Israel has been targeting Hezbollah, an armed non-state group inside of Lebanon, and not the Lebanese government. Hezbollah has thus far honored the agreement, but they are under no formal obligation to do so.

Iran announced Friday morning that it would open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic for the duration of the US-Iran ceasefire. Whether this is a response to the ceasefire in Lebanon—as Iranian leadership claims—or a concession in hopes of removing the US blockade is unclear, but the reopening of the strait removes a major obstacle to global commerce. Brent Crude oil dropped around -10% after the news broke and finished the day at about $91 a barrel, the lowest closing price since March 10^th.

While positive developments in the Middle East garnered headlines this week, positivity was also seen in the economic data. March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation—the first reading since the Iran Conflict began—came in lower than expected. Headline PPI was 0.5% month-over-month, cooler than the Wall Street estimate of 1.0% and in line with the February reading. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy prices, ticked up 0.1% month-over-month compared to the estimated 0.3% increase.

The positive developments set the table for Q1 earnings next week, which will be in full swing. Notable names include UnitedHealthcare, Boston Scientific, Capital One Financial, and many others. Earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is expected to be 13.2% year-over-year, which, if accomplished, would be the sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

A ceasefire in Iran helped fire up market indices this week. The S&P 500 finished the week up +3.48%, while the Nasdaq grew +4.39%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.32%, up +2 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, grew +1 bp to 3.71%.

The threat of military action had been building through the weekend, as President Trump made known his intent to widen the scope of targets—including bridges, power plants, and other pieces of critical infrastructure—after 8:00 PM on Tuesday, April 7^th. The self-imposed deadline applied pressure to the negotiating parties, and just an hour before the deadline, the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire. The temporary truce is conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, and an understanding that both sides would come to the bargaining table in Pakistan this weekend for continued negotiations.

Jobs reports have been noisy so far this year, bouncing from gains to losses in subsequent months, and last Friday’s March employment report was no different. Nonfarm payrolls were 178k, well above the 60k Wall Street estimate and a far cry from the -133k in February. Aggregating across the January, February, and March employment data shows a much clearer picture; the US economy has added an average of 68k jobs each month in 2026, suggesting a slow-growing-but-stable labor market.

This week’s deluge of data was highlighted by the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which was the first inflation report since the onset of the Iran conflict. Headline CPI was 3.3%, a 90-basis point jump from the month prior, though 10 basis points lower than Wall Street analysts expected. Energy inflation of 12.5% was a major driver of this inflation increase, due in large part to the halt of oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, ticked up slightly from 2.5% last month to 2.6% in March. Fuel prices often have a broader impact on core goods, given the necessity of fuel in the production of goods and provision of services. These “second-order” effects of an energy price shock take between one and three months to materialize as global supply chains adjust. Consumers, however, feel the impact immediately, as evidenced by the University of Michigan’s [preliminary] consumer sentiment reading for April, which came in at 47.6, the lowest value on record.

This week has also been an exciting one for AI development. Meta Platforms, the parent company of Instagram and Facebook, introduced its first frontier AI model, Muse Spark, on Wednesday. The newest entrant into the AI race sits at a respectable 5^th place on Artificial Analysis’ LLM leaderboard and helped boost Meta stock by +8% on the week.

The upcoming week is slated to be relatively quiet for equities as we rapidly approach the next round of corporate earnings. On the data front, the March Producer Price Index (PPI) will be the key data point for next week. This will be the first PPI reading since the onset of the Iran war and will give much-needed color as to how high fuel costs are affecting producers.

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Indices continued to oscillate following updates on the Iran conflict, though investors seem to be growing cautiously optimistic about a near term resolution. The S&P 500 finished the week up +3.36%, while the Nasdaq grew +4.44%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.30%, down -13 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, fell -1 bp to 3.70%.

Market sentiment improved steadily throughout the week as media reports hinted at positive developments toward a ceasefire. Reportedly, President Trump is open to ending the war without the Strait of Hormuz being opened, whilst Iranian President Pezeshkian said his nation is ready to end the war, albeit with certain security guarantees, and the two sides are said to be in ongoing negotiations. This is certainly a positive development compared to last week’s resounding rejection of peace negotiations.

Market momentum stalled out following a prime-time presidential address on Wednesday night, the first since the war began. President Trump did not mince words in keeping to the war path, stating “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” and that “We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.” Whether this is bravado intended to improve the US bargaining position, or a reflection of changing attitudes among the Administration is unclear. Markets traded sideways on Thursday following the comments and renewed commitment to the conflict.

Though indices are following sentiments around Iran, some equities are bucking the trend with positive business developments. Marvell Technologies (MRVL), a semiconductor manufacturer, saw its stock pop +13% on the day as chip designer and world’s largest company Nvidia (NVDA) announced a $2 billion stake in the company. This investment is one of a string from Nvidia in recent months as the tech giant builds exposure to and deepens integration with companies across the AI datacenter buildout.

Private space exploration company and owner of Starlink satellite internet SpaceX filed plans this week for an initial public offering (IPO) later this year. The company expects a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, which would be the largest IPO of all time and put the firm solidly in the top 10 most valuable companies by market capitalization. Media reports suggest SpaceX is targeting a June 2026 IPO, though dates have yet to be announced. SpaceX is expected to be the first of a series of blockbuster IPOs in 2026, with AI firms Anthropic and OpenAI—the makers of Claude and ChatGPT, respectively—believed to be sizing up public offerings for later in the year.

Wednesday’s SpaceX IPO filing was coincidentally on the same day as the launch of NASA’s Artemis II, the first crewed mission in the Artemis project. The rocket is part of the broader Artemis program, which hopes to build infrastructure on the moon to support planetary research and to serve as a base for a mission to Mars at some point in the future. SpaceX is expected to be heavily involved in the design and manufacture of technologies used in the Artemis project, as the company already serves as a primary transporter for astronauts and cargo to the International Space Station.

Data is back on the menu in the upcoming week, with a busy slate of releases. The three-day holiday weekend begins with tomorrow morning’s release of the March Employment report. Next Thursday brings the final GDP reading for Q4 of 2025, and PCE inflation for February, while Friday brings CPI inflation for March. As a reminder, our office will be closed on April 3^rd, reflecting the US market holiday for Good Friday.

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Market indices continue to trend downward as geopolitical developments dictate market directionality. The S&P 500 finished the week down -2.12%, while the Nasdaq fell -3.23%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.43%, up +5 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, fell -4 bps to 3.71%.

The fourth week of the Iran war began with a five-day ceasefire, conditional on diplomatic negotiations between American and Iranian officials. Developments have been bumpy in this regard, with contrary claims coming from both negotiating parties. On Monday, US officials claimed to be having productive conversations toward a conflict resolution, while Iranian officials denied any such conversations were taking place. By Tuesday, the US had sent a 15-point plan to end the conflict, which was resoundingly rejected by Iran. Markets responded accordingly, with gains and positive investor sentiment on Monday, followed by a few noisy trading days before ending the week down. The press for peace negotiations continues into next week, as the President extended the temporary ceasefire until April 6^th, promising to strike Iranian energy infrastructure if diplomatic progress is not made by then.

In trade news, President Trump and Chinese President Xi announced plans to meet in China on the 14^th and 15^th of May. The trip was previously scheduled for March 31^st to April 2^nd but was postponed due to the Iran conflict. This summit will be the first US presidential visit to China in nearly 10 years and will see the two world leaders discussing a number of topics, the most important for investors being tariffs and trade relations. It is expected that a reciprocal visit for President Xi will be held in Washington, DC later this year.

With the end of the month comes a fresh set of labor market data, with February’s JOLTS job openings on Tuesday followed by the March employment report—which includes nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate—on Friday. Company news remains quiet as the interim period between financial quarters continues. And, of course, markets will be tracking any and all updates in the Iran war. Finally, markets—and our office—will be closed April 3^rd for Good Friday.