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Weekly Market Update for May 2, 2025
The S&P 500 posted its longest winning streak in 20 years, led by strong reports from major tech companies and hopes for a trade deal with China. The S&P 500 finished the week up +2.85%, while the Nasdaq rose +3.37%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.32%, up 6 bps from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, ended up 4 bps at 4.25%.
The initial first-quarter GDP estimate negatively surprised, showing -0.3% growth; however, a 40%+ surge in imports (ahead of tariffs) dragged the figure down by 5 percentage points. Not only could this dynamic reverse the next couple quarters, but it also masked healthy underlying economic growth, with personal consumption expenditures growing at a respectable 1.8% pace. On the labor front, job openings (JOLTS) for March remain above 7 million, and the employment report Friday showed that 177,000 jobs were filled in April, 44,000 more than expected.
On the fixed income side, securities prices continue to rebound from the April slide. We have rotated the vast majority of our fixed income portfolios towards fixed-rate securities that are trading below par, where we can lock in +6.0% yields and expect continued price appreciation as the market stabilizes. In our view, it is a great time to buy these deeply discounted preferreds.
In equity portfolio news, Facebook (META) reported impressive first-quarter results, growing revenues by 16% y/y and operating profits by 27%. Despite having over 3 billion daily users across its family of apps, the company continues to find ways to expand its user base, increase ads viewed, and better monetize user eyeballs. Microsoft also posted strong numbers, with their Azure cloud growth accelerating from 31% to 35% in Q1. Management dispelled the notion that they were cutting back on AI investments and data center capacity, noting continued capacity constraints and re-iterating guidance for $85 billion in capital expenditures.
This week brought the jobs report and Big Tech earnings. Looking ahead to next week, Axon is the major earnings report we will be watching on Wednesday evening, while Disney’s report that same morning may shed some light on changes in consumer behavior. Also on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release their updated policy statement at midday, with Chair Powell speaking in the afternoon. The Fed is not expected to change benchmark rates this month, but is expected to cut rates three times later this year, including once during the summer. We believe those cuts should benefit fixed income securities.
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
Posted in Weekly Market Update for April 25, 2025
Stocks seemed to move in the opposite direction as last week. On Monday, the S&P 500 kicked things off falling -2.4% before pulling out an ‘Uno Reverse card’ on Tuesday, rising 2.5%. Investors turned hopeful that US-China tensions had potentially peaked and that some progress was being made with various countries toward striking trade deals. The S&P 500 finished the full week up +4.6%, while the Nasdaq rose +6.7%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.28%, down -5 bps from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, ended unchanged at 4.20%. Preferred securities also rose this week in light of the more sanguine economic chatter.
One of the keys to investing is not letting one’s emotions get the best of oneself. Too many individual investors let volatility shake them out of the market. Believe it or not, for all the unsteadiness one may feel this year has brought thus far, the S&P 500 is only down 6% year to date. From the April 8th low, the S&P 500 has bounced 10% higher. One of our priorities as an investment advisor is to help clients position appropriately and see through the volatile times – times which may continue until trade policy is ironed out.
In equity portfolio news, Google’s first quarter results surpassed analysts’ estimates, growing revenues by 12% y/y and operating profits by 20%. The company showed resilience in search advertising and Google Cloud services amidst the macro uncertainties, with management noting they had 1.5 billion users per month utilizing their AI Overview. The good results, along with a $70 billion share repurchase authorization, provided a boost to shares on Friday. The advertising result could also bode well for Meta.
Looking ahead to next week, many of the big technology companies’ earnings are on tap. This includes the likes of Microsoft, Meta (Facebook), Apple, and Amazon. These reports should provide insight into consumer spending and corporate capital investments. Additionally, a bevy of economic data points are slated to be released: job openings (JOLTS) for March and consumer confidence for April come Tuesday; CPE inflation and the initial estimate of Q1 GDP on Wednesday; some manufacturing data on Thursday; and then April’s employment report on Friday. Economists’ estimates for Q1 GDP growth vary widely, but are generally in the 0.0-1.0% range. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 140,000 in April, after increasing by 228,000 in March.
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
Weekly Market Update for April 17, 2025
Equity markets felt a bit calmer this week despite ending lower. The S&P 500 declined -1.5%, while the Nasdaq fell -2.6%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.33%, down -16 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, ended unchanged at 4.20%. Good quarterly results from the banks, along with some interest rate stabilization and a retreat in volatility, led to a bounce in Preferred securities.
Consumer data improved somewhat. March retail sales came in above forecasts and accelerated versus February. In the face of declining consumer sentiment, the big banks noted that consumers aren’t yet showing signs of stress. As the Wall Street Journal put it: “Americans say they are getting worried about the economy and inflation, but banks say they aren’t acting like it yet.” And notwithstanding the major banks warning of risks that new tariffs present, most released strong earnings reports with robust 2025 outlooks.
On the tariff front, there were tailwinds and headwinds this week. Tailwinds included a geographically broad exemption for certain electronics (including smartphones & laptops) announced last weekend, along with relief for some imported vehicles and parts, as well as progress in Wednesday’s trade talks with Japan. Headwinds included restrictions on certain semiconductor exports, commentary around potential new targeted tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, and minimal progress in trade talks with the EU. One angle of the administration’s tariff strategy seems to be attempting to strike trade deals that further isolate China’s economy.
In equity portfolio news, UnitedHealth’s first quarter results disappointed, with the insurer lowering its 2025 profit expectations by 12%. UNH attributed this miss to other insurers not appropriately diagnosing members who switched to United this year, as well as difficulties navigating Medicare Advantage regulation changes. Charles Schwab posted a strong start to the new year, demonstrating improved asset growth, reduced need for short-term funding, and favorable guidance. Lastly, as relations with China keep escalating, the US government handed down new export restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips (tailored for the Chinese market), causing a $5.5 billion hit to Nvidia. This surprise came just after the company announced on Monday the intention to invest $500 billion over the next four years in boosting their US manufacturing capability. The stock ended the week down 8.5%.
Our office is closed tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday. Next week, earnings reports are expected from Tesla on Tuesday and Google on Thursday, amongst a host of other companies. It will be fairly quiet from economic data points, with an April manufacturing report on Wednesday and additional housing data mid-week. Investors will stay glued to progress on tariff talks and any new trade developments.
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment.Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
A Tribute to Jim Ulland
From the UIA Team
Following a Thanksgiving week filled with family time for many, it is with heavy hearts that we share the sad news of our founder Jim Ulland’s passing. We would first and foremost like to send our thoughts and prayers to the Ulland family, including his wife Kris, and his children Olivia (Farris Hussain) Argañaraz and Matias (Hayley Jones) Argañaraz. Thank you for sharing your amazing husband and father all these years. We are eternally grateful and blessed to have had Jim in our lives. As we mourn Jim, we wanted to use our medium this week as a tribute to him.
Born in Duluth, Jim received degrees from Carleton College and the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Finance before starting an extensive political, educational, and business career – oh, and don’t forget Christmas tree farmer.
By the time Jim founded Ulland Investment Advisors (UIA) in 1997, he had already served as Minority Leader of the Minnesota Senate, a college professor, a senior leader at large banks and investment firms, and as Minnesota’s Commissioner of Commerce. Elected to the State House at the ripe age of 27, everyone knew Jim was destined for big things right out of the gate. His gift of finding common ground and instantly connecting with individuals extended into the investment world. Simply put, people have always been drawn to Jim Ulland.
Jim loved to invest in companies exhibiting strong growth, especially at reasonable prices. He sought those with innovative technologies, disrupting legacy industries. His most recent favorite, Nvidia – which he routinely mentioned in this newsletter – is a perfect example of Jim’s ability to catch a trend early and ride the winner. Jim’s investment style not only proved fruitful for clients over many a bull market, but his resolve and calm served as a sea anchor in the winds, holding strong in the bear market storms. Jim was always steady at the helm, no surprise given his Coast Guard service, which he often enjoyed sharing over a Minneapolis Club lunch (don’t forget the side of Durkee’s mustard and just a splash of coffee). Internally, he always led with a calm and steady hand. Control what you can control, and focus on the longer term. Jim always had an optimistic view on the market and life, and an ability to transfer that to clients as well.
Ulland hits stride with money-management venture 30 Nov 1999, Tue Star Tribune (Minneapolis, Minnesota) Newspapers.com
Jim was passionate about Carleton College and his impact on generations of Carls is clear. Jim was always quick to mention that he was the hockey goalie at Carleton. During Jim’s freshman year, he was introduced to the team as a member of the world-famous Duluth East Greyhounds. What the team failed to know was that Jim was the team manager. No problem, Jim would rise up and lead the Knights in net. The pinnacle of his college hockey career was when the team defeated Wisconsin. As later recalled in a note by Captain Fred Bagley, the Knights were led by the “heroic” Jim Ulland in net, saving 40 shots on goal.
Jim’s love for Carleton led to a steady stream of interns to the firm, of whom all cut their teeth under his wing. In fact, all partners in the firm were at one time interns at UIA. From Wall Street to the NBA hardcourt, Jim has left his mark.
While there are too many investment lessons learned from Jim over the decades to mention, we will stand fast to the knowledge we have acquired under his tutelage. As we carry the UIA torch that Jim lit many years ago, we hope to embody his collaborative spirit, his passion for work, and his close connection to clients, as well as to forever remember the impact he had on the community. Clients can be reassured they remain in very good hands with the UIA team, but regrettably we will all miss the dashing smile of Jim Ulland.
Please forward this email to others who knew Jim, particularly those touched by the full life he lived. A celebration of life will be held in June, details of which we will share as we get closer. Jim’s obituary can be viewed here.
Jim always enjoyed watching the peregrine falcons from his desk at the IDS Center. We know that his spirit will be soaring high above us all as we remember the impact he made.
Thank you, Jim!
Ulland Investment Advisors Team
Nat Beebe, President (18 years at UIA)
James Skjong, Dir. of Trading, Compliance & Operations (20 years at UIA)
Jared Plotz, Dir. of Research, Portfolio Manager (8 years at UIA)
Vini Crusius d’ Avila, Research Associate (3 years at UIA)
Sarah Stokes, Client Service Associate (3 years at UIA)
