Weekly Market Update for April 25, 2025
Stocks seemed to move in the opposite direction as last week. On Monday, the S&P 500 kicked things off falling -2.4% before pulling out an ‘Uno Reverse card’ on Tuesday, rising 2.5%. Investors turned hopeful that US-China tensions had potentially peaked and that some progress was being made with various countries toward striking trade deals. The S&P 500 finished the full week up +4.6%, while the Nasdaq rose +6.7%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.28%, down -5 bps from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, ended unchanged at 4.20%. Preferred securities also rose this week in light of the more sanguine economic chatter.
One of the keys to investing is not letting one’s emotions get the best of oneself. Too many individual investors let volatility shake them out of the market. Believe it or not, for all the unsteadiness one may feel this year has brought thus far, the S&P 500 is only down 6% year to date. From the April 8th low, the S&P 500 has bounced 10% higher. One of our priorities as an investment advisor is to help clients position appropriately and see through the volatile times – times which may continue until trade policy is ironed out.
In equity portfolio news, Google’s first quarter results surpassed analysts’ estimates, growing revenues by 12% y/y and operating profits by 20%. The company showed resilience in search advertising and Google Cloud services amidst the macro uncertainties, with management noting they had 1.5 billion users per month utilizing their AI Overview. The good results, along with a $70 billion share repurchase authorization, provided a boost to shares on Friday. The advertising result could also bode well for Meta.
Looking ahead to next week, many of the big technology companies’ earnings are on tap. This includes the likes of Microsoft, Meta (Facebook), Apple, and Amazon. These reports should provide insight into consumer spending and corporate capital investments. Additionally, a bevy of economic data points are slated to be released: job openings (JOLTS) for March and consumer confidence for April come Tuesday; CPE inflation and the initial estimate of Q1 GDP on Wednesday; some manufacturing data on Thursday; and then April’s employment report on Friday. Economists’ estimates for Q1 GDP growth vary widely, but are generally in the 0.0-1.0% range. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 140,000 in April, after increasing by 228,000 in March.
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment. Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
Weekly Market Update for April 17, 2025
Equity markets felt a bit calmer this week despite ending lower. The S&P 500 declined -1.5%, while the Nasdaq fell -2.6%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.33%, down -16 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, ended unchanged at 4.20%. Good quarterly results from the banks, along with some interest rate stabilization and a retreat in volatility, led to a bounce in Preferred securities.
Consumer data improved somewhat. March retail sales came in above forecasts and accelerated versus February. In the face of declining consumer sentiment, the big banks noted that consumers aren’t yet showing signs of stress. As the Wall Street Journal put it: “Americans say they are getting worried about the economy and inflation, but banks say they aren’t acting like it yet.” And notwithstanding the major banks warning of risks that new tariffs present, most released strong earnings reports with robust 2025 outlooks.
On the tariff front, there were tailwinds and headwinds this week. Tailwinds included a geographically broad exemption for certain electronics (including smartphones & laptops) announced last weekend, along with relief for some imported vehicles and parts, as well as progress in Wednesday’s trade talks with Japan. Headwinds included restrictions on certain semiconductor exports, commentary around potential new targeted tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, and minimal progress in trade talks with the EU. One angle of the administration’s tariff strategy seems to be attempting to strike trade deals that further isolate China’s economy.
In equity portfolio news, UnitedHealth’s first quarter results disappointed, with the insurer lowering its 2025 profit expectations by 12%. UNH attributed this miss to other insurers not appropriately diagnosing members who switched to United this year, as well as difficulties navigating Medicare Advantage regulation changes. Charles Schwab posted a strong start to the new year, demonstrating improved asset growth, reduced need for short-term funding, and favorable guidance. Lastly, as relations with China keep escalating, the US government handed down new export restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips (tailored for the Chinese market), causing a $5.5 billion hit to Nvidia. This surprise came just after the company announced on Monday the intention to invest $500 billion over the next four years in boosting their US manufacturing capability. The stock ended the week down 8.5%.
Our office is closed tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday. Next week, earnings reports are expected from Tesla on Tuesday and Google on Thursday, amongst a host of other companies. It will be fairly quiet from economic data points, with an April manufacturing report on Wednesday and additional housing data mid-week. Investors will stay glued to progress on tariff talks and any new trade developments.
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment.Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
Weekly Market Update for April 11, 2025
Tariff headwinds have dominated the news and the market, with a daily barrage of actions, counteractions, and policy pivots. It seems these choppy waters we find ourselves in are here to stay for a while, and it also seems that the direction of the economy is increasingly fluid. This makes it tricky to extrapolate any one development or data point. In times like these, it is best to keep one’s eyes on the horizon and stick to the long-term investment strategy. The S&P 500 rose +5.7% this week, while the Nasdaq climbed +7.3%.
The beginning of the week kicked off on a downbeat, continuing last week’s slide following the April 2 “reciprocal tariffs” announcement. Stocks tried to rally on rumors of a tariff pause before the White House refuted such reports. Then on Wednesday, the Trump Administration did, indeed, announce a 90-day pause for the recently announced tariffs for all countries that had not retaliated and implemented a 10% baseline tariff instead, except for China, which will now be tariffed at 145%. The pivot led the S&P 500 to jump 9.5% on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq rising 12.2%.
Economic data continues to decelerate. Both the March CPI and PPI inflation reports were notably cooler than expected, falling from prior months. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting argued to wait for greater clarity for future policy moves. But given how quickly broad tariffs could change the inflation picture, such backward-looking data is already viewed as stale. And a slowing of employment and GDP growth could even overshadow the inflation risks. Recent readings of consumer confidence and small business sentiment have shown a sharp decline. To ease concerns on Friday, some members of the Fed highlighted that the group could intervene in markets if needed.
Many people are not aware of the fact that global bond markets are larger than stock markets. Bond investors often take longer-term views, but can be less tolerant of volatility, uncertainty, and losses. We think the rise in interest rates in reaction to tariffs was the reason behind the 90-day “pause.” Unfortunately, this didn’t quite quell concern. Mixed messaging persists and the unrelenting tit-for-tat with one of our largest trading partners (China) is impacting confidence. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.49%, rising +48 bps from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury ended up +8 bps at 4.20%. Though Preferred securities fell this week, we are making some very attractive moves. We are finding deeply discounted securities below 80% of par value, with current yields of 6.50-7.00%, that we believe can rebound as rates stabilize.
First-quarter earnings season unofficially kicked off on Friday, with the major banks amongst the first to report. Results through March remained strong; however, multiple CEOs stressed that tariffs of the proposed magnitudes could lead to a dramatic economic slowing, or possibly a recession.
Next week will be shortened, as the market and our office will be closed for the Good Friday holiday on Friday. Earnings reports are expected from additional banks and large healthcare companies. March retail sales, industrial production, and a few housing metrics will also be released.
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment.Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
Weekly Market Update for April 4, 2025
by Vinicius Crusius d’Avila, Research Associate
No way around it: US tariff announcements on Wednesday sent ripples across markets this week, with the S&P 500 down 9.1% and the Nasdaq down 10.0%. With investors turning away from risk and towards Treasuries, the 10-Year yield fell 24 bps to 4.01%, and the shorter-term 6-Month yield fell 12 bps to 4.12%. While the announcements lifted some of the policy uncertainty, the breadth and magnitude of tariffs – imposed on traditional allies and adversaries alike – took markets by surprise. This included levies of 20% on products coming from the EU and of 34% on products coming from China (the latter, combined with another 20% imposed in March, brought tariffs on Chinese imports to 54%).
The White House framed the tariffs as part of its vision to increase domestic manufacturing. Some economists had warned that other countries may respond by imposing tariffs on US goods, slowing down global trade. That happened this Friday, as China announced its matching counter-tariff of 34% on US products. The European Union is also preparing its countermeasures, which it may announce in the coming days.
Employment data released this week showed a still-resilient labor market. February’s JOLTS report registered 7.57M Job Openings (about 1% below expectations). March’s nonfarm payroll report was stronger than anticipated, with employers adding 228,000 jobs last month (versus the forecast of 130,000).
Taken in, the week’s economic news presented delicate challenges for monetary policy. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, underlined that the economy remains “in a good place” as the Fed continues to watch economic indicators. According to Powell, with tariff increases being larger than expected, “the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.” Those economic trends pull in opposite directions, with higher prices typically compelling higher interest rates and slower economic growth advancing the case for lower interest rates.
In the meantime, Federal Reserve officials said there is “no hurry” to make further changes to interest rates. A strong labor market, as suggested by this week’s data, allows the Fed to wait longer to cut interest rates while keeping inflation under control. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market is currently expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bps in June, with three more rate cuts by the end of the year.
Next week, many of the big banks will kick off the Q1 earnings season as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley report on Friday. Inflation metrics for consumers (CPI on Thursday) and wholesale prices (PPI on Friday) are also on the docket.
The information contained in this commentary is not investment advice for any person. It is presented only for informational purposes. Included information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing materials are accurate or complete. Investors should contact Ulland Investment Advisors for individualized information prior to deciding to participate in any portfolio or making any investment decision. Ulland Investment Advisors does not provide tax advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult with their tax advisors regarding any potential investment.Performance quoted is past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. There is always a possibility of loss.
Current performance may be lower or higher than performance shown. Differences in performance versus the indices/funds may be attributable, in part, to differences in the asset make-up of the strategy vs. the indices/funds. Performance calculations are based on the reinvestment of dividends and gains unless these amounts were paid out to the client. Performance is subject to revision. See www.ullandinvestment.com for important strategy disclosures.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the strategy carefully before investing. This and other important information can be obtained by contacting Ulland Investment Advisors at www.ullandinvestment.com or 612.312.1400.
