by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Technology continues to forge ahead, leading to gains for major indices. The S&P 500 finished the week up +1.21%, while the Nasdaq rose +2.06%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 5.17%, up +17 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 4.36%, up +9 bps from last week.

The Trump-Xi summit brought much fanfare to Washington, DC this week, though specific policy accomplishments were minimal. The US and China extended their trade truce for another two months, creating additional breathing room to finalize a tariff deal. Trade Representative Greer also indicated that the two nations had reached a tariff reduction agreement on a “subset” of goods, to be detailed on September 28^th. AI safety was likely a major topic behind closed doors, though the only substantive announcement was a bilateral AI safety summit to take place in November of this year.

Meta continued to capitalize on the momentum of its new personal AI agent Muse, which catapulted to the #1 AI app on the Apple App Store. At Meta Connect 2026, CEO Mark Zuckerberg unveiled the latest additions to the smart glasses’ lineup as well as a brand-new form factor: a keychain-sized, audio-activated AI assistant called Muse Charm. The stock bounced nearly 13% on the week from its AI momentum.

The Iran conflict continues to adversely affect fuel markets, with diesel prices spiking in recent weeks. US diesel was priced around $3.90 a gallon on March 2, a few days after the start of the conflict, and has risen to $6.53 a gallon as of September 21. A substantial portion of that price rise has come in September alone, as prices rose $0.93 per gallon over the course of the month, thus far.

Some respite might be in the cards, as Iranian negotiators have proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, mitigate economic sanctions, and rekindle nuclear talks. The US has not commented on the plan, but the warring nations seem to be having positive discussions through mediators.

The turn of the month—and end of the third quarter—means a fresh set of economic indicators. August JOLTS will be released on Tuesday, followed by the final Q2 GDP reading and August PCE inflation on Wednesday. Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate close out the week on Friday. Investor conferences are plentiful as well, though OpenAI’s developer day on Tuesday is the major highlight.

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

Market indices waffled throughout the week. The S&P 500 finished the week down -0.08%, while the Nasdaq rose +0.72%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 5.00%, up +3 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 4.27%, up +12 bps from last week.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked interest rate policy by 25 basis points at its meeting Wednesday, bringing the rate to 3.75% – 4.00%. The unanimous decision was described as “removing a dose of accommodation” by Chairman Warsh as the FOMC was “hard pressed” to call interest rate policy restrictive. The Chairman, who has already gained a reputation for being tight-lipped, gave little new information to market watchers, only describing the labor market as stable and highlighting elevated 6- and 12-month inflation trends.

The FOMC also released its quarterly summary of economic projections (SEP), in which committee members estimate the future path of the economy and interest rates. Inflation was clearly the worry of the committee, as the median member foresaw core PCE inflation at 3.7% by the end of 2026, before steadily lowering in 2027 and 2028 to reach the Fed’s 2% target. To beat back projected inflation, 16 of 18 FOMC participants forecast another interest rate hike before the end of the year. Consistent with his dislike of forward guidance, Chairman Warsh did not provide his own interest rate “dot” estimate in the SEP.

AI safety has been gaining attention in recent weeks, reaching a fever pitch as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for global coordination and an international slowdown in AI development. Amodei sees AI as an amazingly powerful tool, but believes more third-party safety evaluators, regulation and cybersecurity protocols need to be developed to keep AI aligned with its users’ goals. Other AI leaders, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman pushed back, calling for tech leadership to self-regulate rather than bringing in government regulators. OpenAI and Anthropic have both committed to allowing independent evaluators access to company systems and models prior to their public releases.

International regulation on AI is one of many potential topics for President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping next week as the Chinese leader visits Washington DC. Xi’s White House visit on September 24^th will be the first in a decade, and the second summit of the two leaders this year. Outside of AI, the two dignitaries have much else to discuss; extending the tariff truce that began in October 2025 and expires on November 10^th; locking in a deal for US agricultural and industrial goods; discussing the island of Taiwan; stemming fentanyl flows from China; and the Iranian conflict.

Trump and Xi’s Thursday meeting dwarfs the other events on next week’s calendar. A few investor day events are scheduled, including the Meta Connect event, while economic data primarily includes manufacturing and services PMI and September’s final reading of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

The shortened week had its fair share of data, policy and product announcements. The S&P 500 finished the week down -0.80%, while the Nasdaq fell -0.66%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.97%, up +19 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 4.15%, up +14 bps from last week.

This Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading for August has tipped the scales toward a rate hike at the Fed, rather than a hold. Topline CPI increased 3.4% year-over-year, 0.1% higher than Wall Street consensus, while core CPI was in line with consensus estimates and -0.1% slower than July. At face value, the inflation numbers don’t seem to imply a need for a rate increase, with core declining and topline stable in year-over-year terms, however, recent Fed policymaker commentary makes a case for a hike more apparent. Christopher Waller, generally regarded as a data-dependent, middle-of-the-road Fed Governor, said last week “If there is continued progress toward our 2 percent goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level. But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.” Whether inflation remaining unchanged from July to August represents progress toward the 2% goal will be a major topic of debate at next week’s Fed meeting, but the market sees a rate hike as likely; according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-bps hike sits at 87%, up from 60% last week.

The 10-year Treasury yield has trended to a three-year high—reaching 4.97% this week—as escalation in Iran, oil prices topping $100 a barrel, and the federal government debt reaching an eye-watering $40 trillion have troubled investors. The Treasury Department has sought to keep bond markets liquid and lower yields by increasing buybacks of long-dated 10- and 20-year bonds. The initial intervention, announced in mid-August, doubled the typical quarterly buybacks to $4 billion. This past Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised buybacks again to a total of $6 billion. Bond yields increased 17 basis points through the end of the week, indicating that investors see the additional buybacks as too little to make a major impact.

It was a surprisingly busy week for new technology announcements, with major AI model releases and a new iPhone announcement. Meta continued its mission to join the AI frontier with the release of Muse, a personal AI agent that can shop, send emails or access other apps for users. Frontier modelmaker OpenAI publicly released GPT-6 Astra, which slots in as the second most intelligent AI model available according to Artificial Analysis. Apple announced the latest generations of the iPhone Pro and Pro Max, Apple Watch, and AirPods, with functional software changes and hardware upgrades across the lineup. John Ternus, the new CEO of Apple, also announced a brand-new product, the iPhone Duo. Apple’s first entrant into the foldable phone market, the iPhone Duo will give users the portability of a pocket-sized device and the screen size and functionality of a tablet.

Economic data and the corporate calendar are relatively quiet for the next week, with a few healthcare-focused brokerage conferences and sector-specific datapoints like housing starts, retail sales, and industrial production. The event of the week is Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which includes a new set of economic projections. Markets are leaning towards a 25-bps rate increase, but reasonable arguments can be made for both a hold and a hike. Policymakers will certainly be having the “good family fight” Chairman Warsh has been hoping for.

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

A relatively uneventful week saw little movement in the major indices. The S&P 500 finished the week up +0.09%, while the Nasdaq rose +0.40%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.78%, up +5 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 4.01%, up +3 bps from last week.

Friday’s employment report was anticipated all week, with analysts and commentators speculating how the new labor statistics would factor into the Fed’s next interest rate policy meeting. Nonfarm payrolls for August came in much stronger than expected at +162k, beating Wall Street’s +65k estimate. Trends are generally more useful for policymakers than a singular month’s numbers as they give a better idea of the direction the economy is headed. In the past three months, nonfarm payrolls have averaged +71k new jobs, implying some measure of stability.

Relative stability within the labor market magnifies focus on inflation, especially as it has been above the 2% target for over five years now. Among Fed policymakers, perspectives seem divergent, setting the stage for a contested debate in the Fed’s September meeting. Fed Governor Barr said on Tuesday that the Fed should be prepared to hike policy rates unless upcoming data shows progress toward the inflation target whilst Fed Governor Waller, who spoke Thursday, seemed inclined to hold interest rates at the upcoming September meeting, so long as current disinflationary trends hold. The pressure is on, with next week’s CPI inflation reading seen as the catalyst in the hike-or-hold debate at the Fed.

Tensions continue to rise with Iran, as military strikes resumed this week. The US military has been working double duty, escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz while striking nearly 60 Iranian military targets like air defenses, radar systems, and mine-laying equipment. The two-pronged military and economic fight is putting major pressure on Iran: the Iranian rial’s exchange rate has collapsed, inflation sits at nearly 70% year over year, the country has only a two-month supply of gasoline remaining, and outbound crude oil shipments have dropped to 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 1.7 million bpd a year ago. The conflict may drag on for some time yet, but Iran is certainly feeling the pressure.

Pressure on the Fed intensified this week, as President Trump renewed his call for lower interest rates. As the President routinely highlights, higher interest rates make it more expensive for the US government to service its debt, increasing the budget deficit and weighing on economic growth. However, higher interest rates are the Fed’s best weapon against inflation, which has been persistent throughout 2026. The ongoing public discourse surrounding the Fed exemplifies the difficult mission of Fed policymakers, who sometimes have to make decisions that are unpopular with the politicians and the public. Chairman Warsh, still nascent in his tenure, will have many tough decisions to make, and it remains to be seen if he’ll emulate the independence of Chairman Paul Volcker, or cave to external pressure like Chairman Arthur Burns.

The shortened Labor Day week has little in the way of earnings reports. Instead, the corporate calendar resumes with a slate of brokerage conferences, including Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference. Economic data will be focused almost exclusively on Friday’s core and headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings for August, though the August Producer Price Index (PPI) and September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index are also on the docket.

In addition, financial markets, and our office, will be closed in observance of Labor Day on Monday, September 7. From all of us here at Ulland, we wish you a happy, safe, and hopefully not too humid holiday weekend!