Weekly Market Update for September 11, 2026

by Gavyn Jensen-Schneider, Research Associate

The shortened week had its fair share of data, policy and product announcements. The S&P 500 finished the week down -0.80%, while the Nasdaq fell -0.66%. The 10-Year Treasury yield, an interest rate indicator, closed at 4.97%, up +19 basis points (bps) from last week. The 6-Month US Treasury, a favorite of our US Treasury strategy, closed at 4.15%, up +14 bps from last week.

This Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading for August has tipped the scales toward a rate hike at the Fed, rather than a hold. Topline CPI increased 3.4% year-over-year, 0.1% higher than Wall Street consensus, while core CPI was in line with consensus estimates and -0.1% slower than July. At face value, the inflation numbers don’t seem to imply a need for a rate increase, with core declining and topline stable in year-over-year terms, however, recent Fed policymaker commentary makes a case for a hike more apparent. Christopher Waller, generally regarded as a data-dependent, middle-of-the-road Fed Governor, said last week “If there is continued progress toward our 2 percent goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level. But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.” Whether inflation remaining unchanged from July to August represents progress toward the 2% goal will be a major topic of debate at next week’s Fed meeting, but the market sees a rate hike as likely; according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-bps hike sits at 87%, up from 60% last week.

The 10-year Treasury yield has trended to a three-year high—reaching 4.97% this week—as escalation in Iran, oil prices topping $100 a barrel, and the federal government debt reaching an eye-watering $40 trillion have troubled investors. The Treasury Department has sought to keep bond markets liquid and lower yields by increasing buybacks of long-dated 10- and 20-year bonds. The initial intervention, announced in mid-August, doubled the typical quarterly buybacks to $4 billion. This past Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised buybacks again to a total of $6 billion. Bond yields increased 17 basis points through the end of the week, indicating that investors see the additional buybacks as too little to make a major impact.

It was a surprisingly busy week for new technology announcements, with major AI model releases and a new iPhone announcement. Meta continued its mission to join the AI frontier with the release of Muse, a personal AI agent that can shop, send emails or access other apps for users. Frontier modelmaker OpenAI publicly released GPT-6 Astra, which slots in as the second most intelligent AI model available according to Artificial Analysis. Apple announced the latest generations of the iPhone Pro and Pro Max, Apple Watch, and AirPods, with functional software changes and hardware upgrades across the lineup. John Ternus, the new CEO of Apple, also announced a brand-new product, the iPhone Duo. Apple’s first entrant into the foldable phone market, the iPhone Duo will give users the portability of a pocket-sized device and the screen size and functionality of a tablet.

Economic data and the corporate calendar are relatively quiet for the next week, with a few healthcare-focused brokerage conferences and sector-specific datapoints like housing starts, retail sales, and industrial production. The event of the week is Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which includes a new set of economic projections. Markets are leaning towards a 25-bps rate increase, but reasonable arguments can be made for both a hold and a hike. Policymakers will certainly be having the “good family fight” Chairman Warsh has been hoping for.